Charts from Alhambra. Lots of discussion and explanation there: Durable Goods May Not Actually Show Recession, And That Is The Worst Case
Milton Friedman's "plucking model" is an interesting alternative to the natural rate of output view of the world. The typical view of business cycles is one where the economy varies around a trend value (the trend can vary over time also). Milton Friedman has a different story. In Friedman's model, output moves along a ceiling value, the full employment value, and is occasionally plucked downward through a negative demand shockEconomists's View: New Support for Friedman's Plucking Model
An earlier article on the plucking model: Friedman's "Plucking Model"
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