2016-02-09

Deutsche Bank Analyst Stares Into the Abyss

I don't blame the analyst for recognizing the problem, but some of the things on the to do list are the exact opposite of what is needed.

ZH: Deutsche Bank Is Scared: "What Needs To Be Done" In Its Own Words
So back to the original question WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. Simple?

1. Recognize the problem. It is not oil, it is not in the banks..it is a run on central bank liquidity, especially dollar based and there needs to be much more ($) liquidity. Keynes said to deal with overinvestment boom you cut you don't raise rates. QE is impractical but getting the dollar down would greatly lift dollar based liquidity. So for a starter Fed shd stop raising rates and clearly signal an extended time out.
2. Draghi shd follow up with a one 2 punch, not to get rates down but open the refi spigot to banks and ease liquidity concerns.
3. China needs to come clean. Devalue, stabilize reserves and then allocate 1 tn+ to short up strategically important institutions. Stop intervening in equity markets.
4. And Basel 3 (?4) should be delayed specifically regarding leverage ratios and threat of higher. As a token move there shd be deemphasis of the SSM/bail in rules until there is clarity from the ECB on liquidity sources for stressed banks.
5. how about some fiscal stimulus
6. on negative rates -- instead of making them punitive on the banks allow the banks to earn the spread, make them punitive to savers.. Cash shd be charged interest -- put the micro chip in large denom notes/tax cash withdrawals.. encourage spending not saving .. mortgage rates can be negative and banks can still earn a spread. The spread is the problem not the rate.
The last suggestion would work as well as the power company announcing it will stop sending you electricity and even drain your solar panels if you have them, but still send you a bill. How long before you end your relationship with the power company?

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