2015-07-25

13th 5-Year Plan Is Coming

A possible mixed bag. It sounds like local governments will still be actively involved in growing GDP, but fiscal and tax reform could go a long way to freeing up the economy.
"The government should shift from economy the government more service-oriented government, the government must change the incentives so that government play a more balanced and more effective role in economic and social development." Said Chi Fulin.

..."How to better deal with the relationship between government and the market, will be 'Thirteen Five' planning process needs to focus on grasping the problem." Xu Lin said.

In fact, "China's five-year plan has been the emphasis on economic planning, social planning is even lagging behind." During the two sessions this year, Chi Fulin, also told reporters that China is in a crucial period of economic transformation and upgrading, the transformation of government functions is not yet fully in place.

"Not the public service as a local priority, but still the GDP growth, the expansion of investment as the primary goal." He said deputy governor, told reporters that only in "Thirteen Five" plan by setting binding targets, like catch as catch people's livelihood and economic development, in order to ensure that the government honor its commitment to the people.

...Do not rule out "Thirteen Five" plan will also involve other issues, such as environmental protection and ecological civilization construction. But the director of the China Research Center 施正文 tax law in an interview with reporters focuses suggested that the "Thirteen Five" period, should be promoted as soon as possible "fiscal and tax reform," clearly define the powers of governments at all levels to implement the financial resources to match.

iFeng: 十三五规划强民生重平衡 北戴河会议或定调下一个5年

The Diplomat: How the Next 5 Years Could Make or Break China's 'War on Pollution'

I could see them passing on the issue due to concerns about growth, or let the rebalancing economy take care of the issue as coal mines and steel mills shut down. If China does make major strides in cleaning up its economy in the next five years, it may be due to a much sharper slowdown, which is why they'll be smart and put a bold target in there. If the economy slows, call it "quality GDP" because the air and water are cleaner. If they miss the target and GDP growth is faster, the people get richer.

Speaking of environment, one way to boost short-term GDP and clear the air:
PV Mag:China eyes further PV target increase in 13th five-year plan

CBR: Understanding China’s 13th Five-Year Plan
Meanwhile, a January 12 editorial by former NDRC head and current Director of the National Energy Administration Zhang Guobao indicates that the 13th FYP will focus on one key challenge: continuing China’s economic growth at a relatively fast past and maintaining “healthy development.” Zhang said that ambitious reforms laid out in November 2013’s third plenum will also be reflected in the plan, which seeks to double average annual incomes by 2020 from 2010 levels. Experts say these goals should be attainable if China continues to grow at a steady rate of 7 percent, and others note meeting the goals would be challenging that any growth target under 6.5 percent, suggesting the central government set an average annual GDP growth target of 6.8 percent in the 13th FYP. Other areas of focus Zhang suggests will be carried over from the current FYP include growing domestic demand, upgrading industrial infrastructure, and reforming the country’s energy pricing structure.

It is likely that China will continue to expand central government debt to support emerging industries, according to Zhang’s editorial. He argues that China should continue to adopt a liberal monetary policy and invest in areas such as healthcare, elder care, and education, despite the piling up of government debt. Zhang also says that China should continue to invest in the manufacturing sector, even as it tries to bolster the country’s growing services sector.

What about local plans?

Local governments are also in the process of planning for respective local FYPs to correspond with the central government plan. Local government plans, while often rolling out later than their central counterpart, often have more specific economic targets and goals that impact the local business environment and incentive programs.

Many local governments have different processes and timelines for putting together their respective FYPs. While local development reform commissions (DRC)—government-sponsored think tanks for local leadership—have already entered the official drafting process in cities like Shenzhen, in cities such as Shanghai, they will not start until March. In Guangzhou, DRC officials began collecting public comments in September 2014, a process that will continue through September 2015.

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