2014-08-17

Shanghai's China Construction Bank To Ease Credit Limits for Homebuyers?

A draft document of a credit easing policy from Construction Bank in Shanghai has the media abuzz.

上海限贷“破冰” 京深蓄势调研、留有后手
weekend a "Shanghai loose credit limit" as sprung like a hurricane.

The evening of 16 August, the network transmission CCB new credit policies include: outsiders name just a housing and home loans have been settled, with or without housing who have qualified buyers, the city, led by first-time buyers to apply for mortgage loans identified; Shanghai City residents in January 2011 before issuing home loans (two sets and below) and have all settled, and now have qualified buyers.

Ben reporters after repeated verification, a person close to the bank's final presentation, CCB Shanghai insiders confirmed that the file "on Friday (August 15) has reported, but only the first draft," "not ready to fall, they will not carried out. " After this internal document came CCB CCB executives said there should "thoroughly investigate the matter."

This scene is like Shenyang, Tianjin purchase of loose policy, in Ben correspondent confirmation of these two cities to purchase the policy process, the real estate practice, the restriction is already open, but if the confirmation to the local government authorities, but still a "restriction not yet open, "" all rumors. " Purchase of release, without saying anything, become not disclose secrets.

And is considered tougher than the purchase of the policy of the bank "credit limit", seems to have been under intense surging glaciers.

For the "credit limit" loose statement, a move bankers said on Economic Observer Online, previously identified loans and recognition of the housing policy in itself unreasonable, even now make such adjustments, but also on the previous correction, we can not say the credit limit is relaxed.

Such as policy formally implemented, Shanghai has become the four first-tier cities in the first city to relax credit limit policy. "Shanghai again finds limited credit policy, the other first-tier cities will have to follow up." An industry veteran analysis.

Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen and more recently to reaffirm the government insisted on the restriction policy attitudes. In the past the market generally will purchase and credit limit are considered different administrative systems and financial system policy restrictions, in fact, the Shanghai CCB "new policy" for example, "because of the public moved to the city, mortgage origin have settled, now have qualified buyers, "has actually broken through the past," not a single foreign buyers, "the restriction requirements.

Loose and adjust the details of the credit limit restriction policy, showing first-tier cities beginning of market regulation policy "correction." Economic Observer learned that Beijing, Shanghai and other places, officials recently dedicated experts who research policy and market adjustments, which may include: the purchase of a single person qualified in the field, the actual net signed approval loose suburbs were treated alert real estate prices, high housing appropriate to relax more.

"Correction" and stick

Currently, Shanghai Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank, Bank of Communications, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and other commercial banks that did not receive notice of limited credit policy adjustments.

Senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Financial Markets Liu Dongliang think, in July the worst credit record since November 2009, community financial hit worst since October 2008, the central bank may be facing one of the options is through window guidance to increase credit delivery.

In fact, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Minsheng Bank in July and August in Shanghai launched the first suite of interest rate concessions. The first set, two sets of housing loan interest rates Guangzhou Branch of ICBC also have varying degrees of float downward.

In addition to receiving a big gift from the financial system, the local governments are not contrary to the spirit of the premise of the purchase, reserve-related policies to promote the property market transactions. Beijing Real Estate Association Secretary-General Chen said, "Beijing in the short term and there is no possibility to cancel the purchase, but it will be timely and appropriate structural adjustment."

The first signal that Beijing released high-end residential. Since the beginning of 2013, Beijing to 40,000 yuan / square meters of housing will be no sale of licenses issued. April of this year, 40,000 yuan / square meters to 100,000 yuan / square meter house was released. July, Beijing clearly, more than 100,000 homes, as long as the cap of existing homes on the project to be released.

According to another report, the local Municipal Construction Committee recently invited representatives of the parties in conjunction with local tax authorities for ordinary residential standards were several discussions argument. Informed sources, the adjustment programs, the fastest in August and September will be able to landing. This means that more houses will be lifted purchase limit.

Economic Observer Online is still in Beijing stepped intraday real discovery: for 2004 before the purchase of houses, net signed and did not take rigorous review mechanism, to some extent Beijing locals in practice can buy third homes.

In addition, the Beijing real estate prices were some of the proposed window guidance. A listed state-owned local insiders, the company has opened the first phase of a project, pricing 9700 yuan / square meter, "but the final sale price cap regulatory authorities granted a 17,000 yuan / square meter, slightly lower than the average house in the region standard line. "

It is reported that the morning of August 6, Shenzhen, a second in command held a special highly confidential closed-door meeting to hear the Shenzhen Planning and Land Committee report on the current real estate situation analysis, which involves the purchase of the policy should adjust and discussed if a substantial investment in real estate development decline, sales fell for the responses, as well as Shenzhen housing prices slowed down the field in sales may bring financial risks and other topics.

A day earlier, the Shenzhen Planning and Land Committee also conducted a seminar on the related reports, carding a similar Qishuijianmian, fund quota increase, two suites down payment and other policy reserves.

"Ordinary residential standards such fine-tuning adjustments, the actual benefit from a large range, but very humble, very suitable for first-tier cities as policy fine-tuning of a breakthrough." Shanghai E-House Research Institute Yanghongxu recently announced that Shanghai Normal the possibility of fine-tuning is also a great residential standards.

"Shanghai's purchase of the policy should be said that the country's most stringent, there is some room for adjustment." A Shanghai Housing Authority policy adviser said, from the beginning of this year, the government will convene market participants and experts on the current Shanghai restriction measures are too strict partial correction to discuss, "such as no single foreign qualified buyers, this policy somewhat in recent human."

The source disclosed that the purchase of relaxation space research projects, will continue until at least the end of this year, so a very small possibility that the second half of the introduction of relevant policies.

Line shattered

This year, led by second and third tier cities in Hangzhou large area of ​​price surges, the first-tier cities strong volume and price situation seems to be the consensus, the most concentrated expression that people understand the classification regulation: first-tier cities will never be loose.

However, the actual data is another one situation.

China Index Research Institute data show that the top ten cities north to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in July the average price of residential collective chain fell, and the decline of 0.97 percent, 0.52 percentage points last month to expand more than the national average.

According to CRIC statistics, four first-tier cities 1 to July in the area of ​​commercial housing turnover fell 35 percent, the decline was far more than the second and third tier cities (20% ~ 30%). Which Beijing fell 47 percent is reached.

In the first half of this year, Beijing commercial housing a total turnover of 4466 sets, marking the lowest level since 2006 over the same period. July, developers finally postures, from the marketing gimmicks and promotional kicked upstairs, steering true price, reproduce "thousand disk" and "0 down payment."

In mid-July, the Beijing-Shanghai were spread over 140 square meters of residential will be liberalized, both were denied. However, market participants believe that the message is indeed groundless, to improve the type and high-end luxury residential inventory is actually the biggest pain point first-tier cities.

According to statistics, from January to July this year, Shanghai 140 m2 area over the big house turnover year on year decline of 35.6%, higher than the previous seven months, 27.4% of the city's new home decline. Second-hand housing market, the first seven months of this year more than 140 square meters of second-hand housing transactions in 7125 units, down 41.1 percent year on year.  

As of August 10, Shanghai city's new inventory of up to 12,434,400 square meters, nearly the average unit sales in March, to melt period is 18.5 months, which more than 140 square meters large units accounted for 61.9%. Beijing new home base amount of 80,844 units, a substantial increase over 4000 more than 76,760 sets in early, you need eight months to digest.

Housing transactions fell housing prices directly affect the enthusiasm of reinvestment. According to statistics, in July this year, Beijing land market transactions only four Homestead, July fell 45 percent, Shanghai fell 38 percent, fell 77 percent in Guangzhou, Shenzhen Longgang Industrial only upset sell a piece of land, north of Guangzhou-transfer income totaling approximately 20 billion yuan, one-third less than last year.

"Beijing property market did not fundamentally reverse high inventories, demand is greater than supply situation is tight in the Bank development loans, the market is expected to see under the influence of a weak, persistent lack of power demand, it is difficult to reverse the housing prices is expected to take place again." Beijing Kim Yong Yue Long Consulting Co., Ltd., said general manager.

A number of land transactions tier cities also entered the freezing point, July 29, total 7.7 billion yuan in Beijing Sunhe land because no one quoted bids. This reflects the attitude of the majority of developers cities land. "We think now is not the time to actively enter the land market." Xu Hui Holdings CEO Raymond said.

Kinetic energy and taboo

A source close to Shanghai bureau believes that, despite the first-tier cities to land financial dependence has gradually become smaller, but the emergence of stagflation transaction ends passed to the land market, is still a great deal of pressure.

These people, due to the recent Shanghai index has exceeded the limits of land, construction land is extremely scarce. Municipal several bursts of text beginning that promote new land supply route to revitalize urban stock land, urban renewal in the direction to the transition, "preliminary estimate this part of the land can release thousands Articles of supply."

"In the past, the old pre-change funds are raised by local financing platform, collated and then land on the market, but now the local platform generally tightened its already unrealistic to promote large-scale change for now the main approach is to attract social capital do no change. "the source said.

It is understood that the recent Shanghai hopes to introduce a change for the central enterprises in relation to a land development project to do, but the local mansion to velocity generally very slow, after the completion of the company's scruples level development, land can not be sold, capital returns and return on investment are not protected, then discuss aground.

Sunac Greentown chairman Wang Hongbin said, "Shanghai ordinary real estate inventory to time in 5 to 6 months, mansions along the Huangpu River in Shanghai, for example, are generally up to 4 to 5 years. Many urban change for the project, considered down the cost of land to reach 40,000 ~ 50,000 yuan / square meter. dragged behind the higher the cost. "

"Potential buyers are mainly from the field of high-end residential, restriction policy to block these people, velocity is difficult to lift." Central enterprises in Shanghai, a real estate developer who said that turnover blocked, affecting his business where the purchase Project Phase II enthusiasm land.

Is considered to be first-tier cities in the land of financial dependence lowest Shenzhen, facing the same problem.

A Shenzhen State-owned real estate executives, due to the Shenzhen Special Economic growth depends on fixed investment has become increasingly high proportion of which real estate investment accounted for 40%, non-real estate accounted for 60%, but the first half of this year by the non-real estate investments speed is not high, the Government hopes on real estate investments.

The source said, "Shenzhen Metro from three starts to take all the way to raise iron financing. Moreover, why did not absorbed into the sea before RTHK developers, mainly because of the pre-supporting infrastructure is not mature, this part of the investment needs hundreds of billions of investment. "

Nevertheless, the local government is still taking a cautious approach on the table. JP Morgan chief economist Zhu Haibin said, "Although logically restriction is temporary policy, long-term will be canceled. Additionally Judging from the size of first-tier cities housing, accounting for a share of the national market is very small, but the current line the city's most taboo, should be liberalized to bring to market signals. "

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