2014-08-27

How Long Will The Party Last?

The market has broken through every possible barrier, here is yet another. From this point in time, it's not hard to imagine the end of QE3, possible major deterioration in the Chinese real estate market and economy, recession in Europe, or geopolitical events to spook the market in fall 2014.

Tim Knight posted these charts:

He also linked to this, after hearing about it after posting the charts: The 64-Month Bubble Pattern
All the "name-brand" market bubbles in history have lasted 64 months from initial growth to blow-off top. This includes the 3 biggest bubbles in modern market history:

the Dow into the 1929 peak
the Nikkei into the 1989 peak
the Nasdaq 100 into the 2000 peak

This also includes more recent bubbles, such as home-builders into 2005, and crude oil into 2007.

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