2014-02-06

GOP Civil War Nearing Completion, But Democrat Civil War Just Beginning

One theme here has been the effect of negative social mood on the political system and how the GOP began tearing itself apart in 2008. It looks bad in the short-term, but if social mood stays in a negative long-term trend, the party that morphs into a reform party, no matter which way they move, will have a clear path to total power in Washington, D.C. on par with the New Deal revolution in the 1930s.

Following defeat in 2008 with a moderate candidate chosen to appeal to independents, the GOP base re-emerged in 2010 with the Tea Party, pulling the Congressional delegation to the right and electing candidates who disagreed with the establishment on major issues such as national defense. Then came 2012, when the party again chose a moderate designed to appeal to independents and angered the base with their tactics. Now the base is fuming over the leadership once more and the Speaker may even have a challenger in the primary, while the VP nominee from 2012, Paul Ryan, also has lost great stature among the base.
Boehner on the brink: Speakership coup brewing over immigration
“I think it should cost him his speakership,” Mr. Labrador, Idaho Republican, said in an interview with the Capitol Hill news organization.

Mr. Labrador also refused to rule out running to replace Mr. Boehner — even if the Ohio Republican put the brakes on immigration bills.

“There is a hunger in the conference for bold, visionary leaders, and this is not just conservatives — you talk to more middle-of-the-road members of the conference, they’re kind of frustrated with the direction of this leadership, and they’re looking for ways to change that,” he told CQ Roll Call.
It's not just one politician speaking. If you want to put your name to it, there is a petition to remove Boehner as Speaker.

Every single political analysis I've seen thinks the GOP will harm itself in 2016 with primary battles and that the Democrats will have smooth sailing with Hillary. That may end up being the case, depending on how things play out, the question is whether the GOP and the nation are ready for reform in 2016 or whether it will take until 2020. Should the GOP lose in 2016, by 2020 it would have changed greatly on the issues and will likely nominate (or the party that replaces it will nominate) an anti-interventionist, anti-free trade, anti-bank, anti-immigration candidate. Meanwhile, by then the Democrats may be having riots in the streets again.

BREAKING NEWS: FIGHT BREAKS OUT AT DEMOCRATIC PARTY CAUCUS IN MINNEAPOLIS [UPDATED]
A lot of cultural history is packed into that paragraph. Phyllis Kahn, 76 years old, has been in the Minnesota legislature for an astonishing 42 years. A political insider for her entire adult life, she lives in one of the notorious $1 homes on Nicollet Island that were given to prominent Democrats. Mohamud Noor is a Somali, one of many thousands who have thronged to Minnesota in recent years. Until recently a state employee, he was elected to the Minneapolis school board less than two months ago. He says his “campaign will be focused on equity issues.” Kahn, on the other hand, emphasizes her ability to bring home the bacon
One of the results of mass immigration and the GOP becoming the "white party" is that the white Democrat is increasingly headed for minority status within their own party. A coalition can hold together when there is a dominant majority, but once it falls, the minority groups turn to fighting each other. The Democrats have always been a tenuous coalition of various political groups, but this has turned increasingly racial due to mass immigration and the reigning ideology of multiculturalism. While many new immigrants are more liberal than conservative, and will pull the country to the left, they are also less ideological because of the race-based identity politics introduced by the left over the past 40 years. Thus while the country may drift leftward over time, the ideological leftists may soon find themselves homeless.

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