America Headed Towards Revolution; End of Filibuster Increases Odds of Secession

Blame Rich, Overeducated Elites as Our Society Frays

Past waves of political instability, such as the civil wars of the late Roman Republic, the French Wars of Religion and the American Civil War, had many interlinking causes and circumstances unique to their age. But a common thread in the eras we studied was elite overproduction. The other two important elements were stagnating and declining living standards of the general population and increasing indebtedness of the state.

Author Peter Turchin describes the lead up to the "War of Northern Aggression":

From 1830 to 1860 the number of New Yorkers and Bostonians with fortunes of at least $100,000 (they would be multimillionaires today) increased fivefold. Many of these new rich (or their sons) had political ambitions. But the government, especially the presidency, Senate and Supreme Court, was dominated by the Southern elites. As many Northerners became frustrated and embittered, the Southerners also felt the pressure and became increasingly defensive.

This puts the recent Silicon Valley desire for secession in perspective. The tech boom of the past 30 years has increased the wealth of tech entrepreneurs, but until very recently, they've mainly stayed out of politics (or when they get involved, don't rock the boat). Now flush with wealth and power, they are throwing their weight around, trying to direct legislation in Washington and talking about secession.

We should expect many years of political turmoil, peaking in the 2020s. And because complex societies are much more fragile than we assume, there is a chance of a catastrophic failure of some kind, with a default on U.S. government bonds being among the less frightening possibilities.

It's tough to guess how the United States will fragment, but the urban-rural split is already sparking secession talk. Southern nationalism is on the rise. Considering the end of the filibuster in the Setnate and the authors mention of the Civil War: the reason why the South seceded when it did was because they saw the balance in the Senate, which is the body that can slow down and block the majority, tipping towards the North. Consider the filibuster: if there are 20 states (40 Senators) +1 Senator who wish to block legislation in the Senate, they can do so with the filibuster. Without the filubuster, you need 25 states +1 Senator to block legislation. In other words, you must control the Senate.

Demographics are shifting in favor of Democrats, but their voters concentrate in urban areas. The Republican party is itself breaking down and will probably dissolve, but we'll keep the name to make it simple. Assume that a time comes in as little as 10 years, that mathematically Republicans will almost never win the Senate again without changing their ideology, and if they do win, it'll always be close. At that point, a secession movement in even one Republican state would have massive power because if they left, it would tip the balance of power in the Senate. Every other Republican state would follow them out the door.