Parti Québécois returns to power on divisive ethnic theme; victory marred by bombing

Another election fitting the current social mood occurred in Quebec.

Shots, blast disrupt PQ victory celebration in Quebec

TV footage outside showed flames burning at the back of the club and a heavyset, bespectacled man wearing shorts and with a balaclava over his head.

"The English have woken up. That's enough," the arrested man said in French, with a heavy accent, as he was walked away in handcuffs. Montreal police later said a 50-year-old suspect was arrested on suspicion that he fired and critically injured two people.

In her speech, Ms. Marois, who had been severely criticized for campaigning on identity and language themes, had some conciliatory words for Quebec's anglophone and native communities, speaking of their shared history and, in a rare move for her, speaking in English to say their rights would be respected.

However, she struck a tougher stance towards the rest of Canada.

"As a nation, we want to take ourselves the decisions that affect us. We want a country. And we'll have it."

Marois wins minority in Quebec election, security scare cuts speech short

The minority PQ government may alleviate some fears of an impending referendum on Quebec’s independence, which Marois said she would only call under the “right conditions."
But Marois remained defiant in her victory speech, saying: “The future of Quebec is to become its own country.”

...Now, for the first time since 2003, Quebec has a sovereigntist government that’s poised to revive tensions with Ottawa and other provinces.

Marois has said that she will contact Prime Minister Stephen Harper shortly after taking office to discuss the transfer of powers in areas like immigration, language and employment insurance from Ottawa to Quebec. If Harper refuses, Marois said that will only boost her case for an independent Quebec.

But as a minority government, the PQ will face tough challenges pushing its independence agenda. The party has won four majorities in previous elections, avoiding having to forge alliances in parliament.

This situation mirrors the one in the United Kingdom, where Scotland's push for independence has stalled and the debate has turned to a devolution of powers. Quebec has a stronger case for independence since there's no EU to complicate matters, but Canada (and the United States, if secession talk heats up there) also has a more decentralized system that can sate the desire for local control.

Whether Quebec stays or goes depends on local factors, but also social mood. If the mood becomes extremely negative, they may choose to exit. In 1995, the vote was split almost 50/50 , with no votes barely defeating a vote for sovereignty. A similar vote lost 60/40 in 1980. If Quebecois want independence, they should study socionomics to time their next sovereignty vote.

Quebec independence will have an effect on the rest of Canada and the United States. Assuming Canada stays united, the country would make a strong political shift to the right. In the past, breakup scenarios usually involved the Western energy-rich provinces leaving for the United States, but today's U.S. doesn't seem as friendly a destination. The largest impact would be psychological though, in that it would make separatism a reality.