2012-04-23

Sarkozy loses round one, will lose round two

Hollande wins first round, sets up run-off with Sarkozy
Socialist presidential challenger François Hollande topped the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday with 28.4 percent of votes, while incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy finished second with 25.5 percent, according to exit polls. Those figures set up a widely expected run-off between Sarkozy and the candidate of France’s main opposition party who led most voter intentions surveys before the first round.
In 2007, Sarkozy won 31% in round one to Royale's 26%. This year, Marine Le Pen performed well, with 18%, while the communist candidate received 11%. Sarkozy is unlikely to pull as much from Le Pen though, while I expect Hollande will receive communist and centrist support.

2012 followed the socionomic pattern compared to 2007, but if you compare this year with 2002, it doesn't look as good. 2002 saw the National Front (Le Pen's party) win second place; not a single candidate won 20% in the first round, and there was an even higher abstention rate. However, if we consider the positions of the candidates, specifically the face that Hollande may well blow-up the eurozone, the mainstream shift towards more radical policies is in keeping with social mood. 2002 was an outlier because at that time, the mainstream parties were running on peak social mood policies and the mood was just beginning its big shift. As social mood continues to decline though, we will see how far mainstream parties can bend before they break and a radical party takes power in Europe.

You can see all the results and compare with previous elections at Présidentielle 2012 : tous les résultats du premier tour, ville par ville.

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