Does China want a recession?

Mish has a new post on China today: China Prepared to Let Housing Prices Sink in Spite of Economic Slowdown; Transition to New Regime Underway; Decoupling in Reverse

He talks about how the new leadership is likely to be more interested in consumer growth and I totally agree, based on the public statements by incoming premier Li Keqiang (statements from previous years and his recent comments are in agreement.) This post reminded me of something brewing in my mind that I hadn't posted about. Some China analysts have speculated that China doesn't want a recession in 2012 due to the leadership handover and because Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao don't want to harm their legacy. I believe this is a short-sighted and Western opinion. On the political side, there's no election. The current regime doesn't lose power if there's a recession, it's not like in the U.S. where the party in power would shift if there was a recession in the last year of an administration. Historians look at the totality of a leader and an administration, not the short-term economic fluctuations that are mostly out of the government's control, so I don't see the leaders concerned about the state of the economy upon their exit. Since there's no power shift and most people will remain in their current positions, I see no political argument that a good economy makes for a "smooth" political transition.

Looking at the other side of the argument, if you are an incoming political leader, what's the thing you would most want at the start of your administration? If you know anything about politics and economics, you would say recession. Politically, recessions allow for easier reform because there's an impetus for change. Economically, the business cycle is such that every administration will probably see a soft patch in the economy. When a new leader first takes power, they want to implement their policies quickly and spend their time advancing their agenda. Also, since the business cycle is independent of politics, starting with a recession is almost certain to guarantee a "successful" administration because the recovering economy will seem to be a result of the new leader.
This is speculation on my part, but logically it would make sense for the incoming premier Li Keqiang to favor a recession. I recently posted a Chinese language video in a post titled: Incoming premier Li Keqiang says housing policy to stay tight into 2012. He is taking on a larger media role as he transitions into power and when the current leadership spoke earlier this year, they said tight policy would continue until year end. Now, the incoming leadership is saying policy will stay tight into 2012. Li Keqiang has spoken about the need for tax reform and he wants to build a large middle class. Aside from reducing government directed investment, another way to build a domestic consumer economy is to lower home prices, thereby increasing disposable income. Obviously there's some wealth effect during the bubble, but in the long run, lower home prices are good for consumers.