The most likely candidates to trigger the next global crisis are the U.S.'s sovereign debt or China's inflation. When one goes down first, the other can prolong its economic cycle. China may have won the last race. To win the next one, China must tackle its inflation problem, which is ultimately a political and structural issue, in 2011. If China does, the U.S. will again be the cause for the next global crisis. China will suffer from declining exports but benefit from lower oil prices.
On the other hand, if China has a hard landing, the U.S.'s trade deficit can drop dramatically, maybe by 50 percent, due to lower import prices. It would boost the dollar's value and bring down the U.S.'s treasury yield. The U.S. can have lower financing costs and lower expenditures. The combination allows the U.S. to enjoy a period of good growth.
One could describe the global economy as a race between the U.S. and China, to see who goes down first.
This coming year is China's opportunity.
中国广东暴雨持续 深圳发暴雨“红色警报”
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中国南部人口密度高、经济发达的珠江三角洲地区因连日持续的创纪录降雨,使当地一些城市遭受洪灾。 路透社报道说,自 […]...
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