2010-06-29

You call this inflation?


I enjoy reading and watching Marc Faber, but is Ben Bernanke really a money printer? Tha above chart is from the Federal Reserve's budget report for money printing. The face value and number of notes is up, but the government is also introducing new notes, which explains some of the uptick. Still, even if all $100 billion in new face value currency was added to the money supply, how does that stack against trillions in credit losses yet to be taken?
As part of the annual print order process, we forecast five years of currency demand and allocate, as evenly as possible, the number and denomination of notes that we expect to order over that period. As a result, the print order for fiscal year 2010 includes predominantly $1, $20, and $100 notes and relatively small amounts of $5 and $10 notes. We currently anticipate that the fiscal year 2011 print order will include all denominations except $2 notes. We estimate that in calendar years 2010 and 2011 orders of approximately 4.0 billion Series 2004 $100 notes will be required to meet demand after the note is issued. Although the final release date for the Series 2004 $100 note remains uncertain, for budget-planning purposes, we assumed that the Federal Reserve will begin to issue the notes in late 2010. The BEP continues to conduct production tests on the Series 2004 $100 note. When this testing is complete, we will have a more-precise timeline for production and issuance.
Below is the currency component of M1 , which shows some growth, but it's not as large as the growth M1 itself. Plus, even if there's more cash, it's not circulating, as the velocity of M1 shows below.

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