2010-06-24

Falling governments

Voters around the world are implementing a Wal-Mart Rollback strategy. Instead of falling prices, however, there are falling leaders and governments.



U.K. voter turned to the Tories and LibDems in May.

Merkel's ruling CDU suffered their biggest loss post-WWII in North Rhine-Westphalia back in May, which resulted in losing control of the upper house of parliament. A presidential election will be held on June 30, it is not a general election, rather elected politicians vote. It is a secret ballot, however, and there's some speculation that even though Merkel has the votes based on the makeup of this electorate, she may face opposition from her own ranks. Merkel's government was elected eight months ago.

Japan's prime minister resigned over a flip-flop on U.S. bases in Okinawa. He was elected nine-months earlier when the DPJ swept out the LDP, which had ruled for most of the post-WWII period.

Japan has an upper house election coming on July 11. Here's the WSJ:
The LDP, which lost power last year after more than 50 years of almost unbroken rule, has 71 seats in the Upper House chamber of which 38 will be on the July ballot. Mr. Tanigaki has vowed to resign as LDP head if the DPJ secures the combined majority after the election.

Yoshimi Watanabe, leader of Your Party, a popular start-up party with "small- government" policies, is also aiming to block the DPJ from taking a majority in the Upper House.

Your Party has only one seat in the chamber, but Mr. Watanabe said if his party can make a big leap in the July election, "the DPJ would go into a collapse process, which could accelerate a realignment of political alliances."
So Japan has splinter parties that may play a role in the governing coalition in the upper house. And what does this Your Party sound like? Here's a WSJ blog discussing the Your Party.
The party was formed last year after former LDP cabinet minister Yoshimi Watanabe left the party, advocating smaller government and scaling back the political influence of Japan’s large but unelected bureaucracy. As Japan’s state coffers creak under the burden of huge debt, YP promises cutting special privileges that public employees and policymakers have enjoyed, as well as digging into government spending, rather than raising taxes. YP also says it wants to bring fundamental changes to social security and drastically increase the administrative power of local governments versus Tokyo.
Sounds like a Japanese Tea Party to me. And while they're polling well, they're not the only splinter party, something predicted by a falling social mood.

Poland's President died in a plane crash, along with much of the country's leadership, and voters favor the out of power party in the election to replace him.

Australia gets first woman PM Elections are coming up in Australia and Kevin Rudd's unpopular mining tax has cost him the leadership of his own party. He resigned before being voted out. The Labor party is headed on the wrong track with voters and they hope the new PM will help turn the polls around.

And then there's the U.S., where primary voters have already fired a considerable number of incumbents from both parties.
“Both parties are having civil wars with their Washington establishments,” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist. “You are seeing it on the Republican side; you’re seeing it on the Democratic side. The reality is, regardless of what party you are in, if you’re an incumbent and it looks like the Washington establishment is backing you, you’re in trouble. It’s the wrong place to be this year.”

Mrs. Lincoln looked as if she could become the third Senate incumbent to be defeated this year, following Senator Robert Bennett, Republican of Utah, and Senator Arlen Specter, Democrat of Pennsylvania.
Some of these primary elections run all the way into mid-September. The general election is November 2.

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