2009-07-13

Good Timing?

On June 29, I made this post 分析金矿股票图表 in Chinese, in which I discussed the signals I was getting from the gold mining stocks. I had several charts, the first of which showed that gold miners signaled a market turn in late February, right about the time that Robert Prechter made his call for a near-term bottom; Marc Faber turned bullish around the same time.

I then showed a chart of 2008 and I highlighted the March and July periods. I've commented before about how I believe 2009 is unfolding similarly to 2008, and I though July might be a period for a downturn similar to the one caused by Fannie and Freddie in 2008. Gold miners started falling in mid-June, along with commodity prices, and I wondered if this wasn't sending the same signal as in 2008, when oil prices peaked in late-June early-July and then went south quickly. I posted this graph on that date:


Here's how things have done since:


Prechter thinks we'll have a rally in late summer, just like 2008. I think my 2009 framework holds up, but then the question is what happens this fall...

Note: if the charts on not visible, try clicking on the post title. If they're still not showing, click through to see them. Sina is spotty with their treatment of hot links.

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