2009-06-06

Yuan Overvalued?

There are a minority of economist and analysts who believe the yuan in overvalued. Even the Chinese wonder about it:
There is some concern that the pilot program could cause massive yuan outflows and an increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, but that negative may be offset by the broader use of the yuan by foreigners, who would be attracted by a currency expected to appreciate over the long term.
That's from an article on the yuan settlement program, which is currently working with the State Administration of Taxation to finish up the policies. Foreign demand may offset the outflow, but the current policy already allows a lot of yuan buying, while not allowing Chinese to sell. The question is whether there is enough new demand to offset the pent up selling.
踌躇退税问题 人民币结算试点只差“临门一推”
知情人士告诉《财经》记者,实行跨境贸易人民币结算试点后,试点地区的一些进出口业务,将不再经过收汇、核销等原本由外管局控制的环节,这使得税务部门对这些业务的监管风险加大,需要在退税办理的具体操作方式和文件要求上做出相应的调整。这是目前细则迟迟无法出台的主要原因。

  国务院5月27日召开常务会议,研究部署进一步稳定外需的政策措施,其中就指出“抓紧实施货物贸易人民币结算试点”。基本与此同期,央行与税务总局召集会议讨论了跨境贸易人民币结算试点中的退税问题,消息人士表示,只待此问题解决,试点工作即可实施。

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